Observed versus estimated actual trend of COVID-19 case numbers in Cameroon: A data-driven modelling.

Controlling the COVID-19 outbreak remains a challenge for Cameroon, as it is for many other countries worldwide. The number of confirmed cases reported by health authorities in Cameroon is based on observational data, which is not nationally representative. The actual extent of the outbreak from the time when the first case was reported in the country to now remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate and model the actual trend in the number of COVID -19 new infections in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 based on an observed disaggregated dataset. We used a large disaggregated dataset, and multilevel regression and poststratification model was applied prospectively for COVID-19 cases trend estimation in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021. Subsequently, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling was used for forecasting purposes. Based on the prospective MRP modeling findings, a total of about 7450935 (30%) of COVID-19 cases was estimated from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 in Cameroon. Generally, the reported number of COVID-19 infection cases in Cameroon during this period underestimated the estimated actual number by about 94 times. The forecasting indicated a succession of two waves of the outbreak in the next two years following May 31, 2021. If no action is taken, there could be many waves of the outbreak in the future. To avoid such situations which could be a threat to global health, public health authorities should effectively monitor compliance with preventive measures in the population and implement strategies to increase vaccination coverage in the population.

Limited handwashing facility and associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa: pooled prevalence and multilevel analysis of 29 sub-Saharan Africa countries from demographic health survey data.

INTRODUCTION: Handwashing is fundamentally an inexpensive means of reducing the spread of communicable diseases. In developing countries, many people die due to infectious diseases that could be prevented by proper hand hygiene. The recent coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a threat to people who are living in resource-limited countries including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Effective hand hygiene requires sufficient water from reliable sources, preferably accessible on premises, and access to handwashing facility (water and or soap) that enable hygiene behaviors. Therefore, this study aims to determine the prevalence of limited handwashing facility and its associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) were used, which have been conducted in 29 sub-Saharan African countries since January 1, 2010. A two-stage stratified random cluster sampling strategy was used to collect the data. This study comprised a total of 237,983 weighted samples. The mixed effect logistic regression model with a cluster-level random intercept was fitted. Meta-analysis and sub-group analysis were performed to establish the pooled prevalence. RESULTS: The pooled prevalence of limited handwashing facility was found to be 66.16% (95% CI; 59.67%-72.65%). Based on the final model, household head with age group between 35 and 60 [AOR = 0.89, 95% CI; 0.86-0.91], households with mobile type of hand washing facility [AOR = 1.73, 95% CI; 1.70-1.77], unimproved sanitation facility [AOR = 1.58, 95% CI; 1.55-1.62], water access more than 30 min round trip [AOR = 1.16, 95% CI; 1.13-1.19], urban residential area [AOR = 2.08, 95% CI; 2.04-2.13], low media exposure [AOR = 1.47, 95% CI; 1.31-1.66], low educational level [AOR = 1.30, 95% CI; 1.14-1.48], low income level [AOR = 2.41, 95% CI; 2.33-2.49] as well as lower middle-income level [AOR = 2.10, 95% CI; 2.14-2.17] and households who had more than three children [AOR = 1.25, 95% CI; 1.20-1.31] were associated with having limited handwashing facility. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: The pooled coverage of limited handwashing facility was high in sub-Saharan Africa. Raising awareness of the community and promoting access to handwashing materials particularly in poorer and rural areas will reduce its coverage.

Fear of COVID-19 reinforces climate change beliefs. Evidence from 28 European countries.

The long-term nature of climate policy measures requires stable social legitimacy, which other types of crises may jeopardize. This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 fear on climate change beliefs based on an autumn 2020 population survey in the Member States of the European Union and the United Kingdom. The results show that deep COVID-19 concerns increase climate change concerns, awareness, and perceived negative impacts of climate change. These effects are more robust among the lower educated Europeans. On the country level, strict governmental measures are also linked to deep climate change concerns. In contrast to the experience following the 2008 recession, the findings show that a secondary crisis can positively impact climate attitudes, which is a promising result for policy actions.